The Batle of the (Supply) Bulge

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One of the biggest challenges facing California almond growers has been created by their success. Growers up and down the Valley are tearing out other types of crops, including vineyards, to plant almond trees.  

“Almonds are profitable, and more almond acreage is coming into bearing than ever before,” says Dave Baker, director of member relations for Blue Diamond Growers. “Three or four years from now, when these trees begin to produce, there will be a supply bulge that could threaten prices. We’ve had spikes before, and it takes a couple of years before all the new supply is absorbed by the market. It’s that period of transition that has us a little nervous.”

Marsha Venable, spokeswoman for the California Almond Board, a quasi-governmental organization funded by the almond growers, agrees, but says there may be a partial solution. “I think the markets, especially overseas, will expand enough to keep it from being a huge problem,” she says. “We’re seeing a growing demand for almonds worldwide that will last at least through the end of this decade.”

Still, Blue Diamond Growers CEO Doug Youngdahl is careful in his public messages not to encourage new almond plantings. The potential supply bulge is being taken seriously by growers, as almonds are beginning to rival grapes as the new “chic” crop in California. The image of the rich and retired buying up open land and planting huge almond crops, as they have done with grape vineyards in the past two decades, is not a happy one for current growers.

“Be sure to tell everybody how much hard work it is to run an almond orchard,” laughs Baker. “We want people to feel it is cool to eat almonds, but we don’t want to make it so cool that everybody wants to go out and grow them.”

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